Chelsea v BATE Borisov: Blues to win with room to spare

Chelsea v BATE Borisov
Thursday 25 October, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

It hasn’t been a swashbuckling start to the Europa League campaign for the tournament favourites Chelsea (they are trading at [5.5] to win the competition), but after two wins and two clean sheets Maurizio Sarri’s team are in a strong position.

Chelsea made enough chances to beat PAOK and Vidi by more than a 1-0 scoreline, but were a little wasteful on both occasions. That profligacy nearly cost them on Matchday Two, as Kepa was forced into an excellent late save against Hungarian side Vidi. Sarri has played a slightly weakened side in the competition so far (Eden Hazard has made one sub appearance in two games), but he hasn’t shown the Europa League disrespect by leaving out all of his key players or starting rising stars like Callum Hudson-Odoi and Ethan Ampadu. Sarri knows his ability to juggle domestic and international tournaments is under scrutiny, after he failed that test with Napoli last season.

Chelsea just about maintained their unbeaten home record against Manchester United at the weekend, as Ross Barkley grabbed a last-gasp equaliser. The Blues have won four and drawn two of their games under Sarri at Stamford Bridge, and they haven’t lost on home soil since April. Hazard is likely to be rested for the weekend’s trip to Burnley, especially as he is struggling with a slight back injury. The likes of Gary Cahill, Davide Zappacosta and Cesc Fabregas could all be given another start in the competition, as they bid to prove their worth in the long term.

It had all started so well for BATE Borisov in the group stage, as they won 2-0 against Vidi in Hungary on Matchday One. They were hoping to take another big step towards the last 32 as they hosted Greek side PAOK, but they found themselves 3-0 down inside 17 minutes. They never recovered from that false start, losing 4-1 to hand the initiative straight back to last season’s runners-up in the Greek Super League.

BATE’s experience of facing a London side last season wasn’t a pleasant one. They lost 4-2 at home to Arsenal, and were smacked 6-0 at the Emirates. They also lost 5-2 in Cologne in last term’s group stage, and that was a Koln team that went on to be relegated from the Bundesliga.

Domestically, BATE are unsurprisingly dominant, nine points clear at the top in Belarus. But even their league form hasn’t been flawless recently – they lost 2-1 at Isloch, who are only ninth in the top flight.

Chelsea have registered a pair of narrow victories, but I think they have can have more joy on Thursday against a club that has plenty of top-level European experience, but little technical quality. BATE have leaked plenty of goals in recent European games, and Chelsea should create plenty of opportunities, just as they did against PAOK and Vidi.

Chelsea are a prohibitive [1.16] to win the match outright, but you can back them to win both halves on the Sportsbook at evens, and I think that’s a decent play given CFC’s likely dominance.

BATE were alarmingly poor against PAOK, and have crumbled at the Emirates and the Rhein Energie Stadion in recent away games at this level. Chelsea have been creating chances without converting them in this competition so far, but I think that’s about to change.

If you don’t fancy backing CFC to win both halves (or maybe even if you do), then you can back Over 3.5 Goals at [2.24]. That bet has paid out in three of their six home matches in all competitions.