Having backed Burnley to pick up a result last week, Kevin Hatchard now believes their opponents Istanbul Basaksehir will gain the upper hand in this Europa League qualifier.
Burnley v Istanbul Basaksehir
Thursday August 16, 19:45
Dyche not fazed by physical demands
At heart, Burnley boss Sean Dyche is a teak-tough pragmatist, who isn’t easily swayed by an argument that can’t be backed up by cold hard facts.
The prevailing narrative when it comes to playing in Europe is that it’s difficult to balance domestic and continental competition, and for some reason people seem to think the Thursday/Sunday demands of the Europa League are more taxing than the possible Wednesday/Saturday schedule of the Champions League.
Dyche took his Burnley side through the trial-by-fire that is the Championship, and demands that his players stay in peak physical condition, so he isn’t scared by the demands of a potential run to the group stage of the Europa League.
Although he has made it plain that the Premier League is his priority, he wants to make the most of the reward the Clarets received for finishing seventh in the Premier League last season. Burnley ground out a goalless draw in Turkey last week, but there is still plenty of work to do to reach the next round.
The Burnley boss admits that injuries have bitten hard even at this early stage of the season. Ashley Barnes, Steven Defour, Matej Vydra and Robbie Brady are either injured or short of full fitness. Having played last Thursday in Turkey and in Southampton on Sunday (both games were 0-0 draws), Dyche doesn’t have the facility to freshen things up too much. Having kept a clean sheet on his Burnley debut, Joe Hart is likely to continue in goal.
Turkish team keen to build on recent progress
Istanbul Basaksehir have gone from zeroes to heroes in the last few seasons. From being a drifting club with three-figure crowds, they are now a club that regularly competes at the top end of Turkish football.
In the last four seasons of the Turkish Super Lig, they have finished fourth twice, second and third. With that success has come the opportunity to build up European experience, and although they were held to a stalemate late week, astute coach Abdullah Avci will feel his side has enough to do some damage at Turf Moor.
Players like Emmanuel Adebayor, Gael Clichy, Eljero Elia and Emre Belozoglu all have Premier League experience, so they’ll know what to expect in Lancashire. It’s also worth noting that Basaksehir won their most recent Europa League game away at Ludogorets, which takes some doing. Avci’s men are on a high after opening their league campaign with a 2-0 victory over Trabzonspor.
I see this as a delicately balanced tie, so Istanbul Basaksehir’s price of [3.85] in the Match Odds market seems a little big to me. They picked a surprisingly strong line-up last week, and they are more than capable of grabbing an away goal, having done so in three of their last four Europa League away matches. Burnley’s recent home record is worrying from their point of view – they have won just two of their last 11 home matches inside 90 minutes.
Burnley’s failure to score in Istanbul leaves them vulnerable, they have a few injury issues, and they needed extra time to scrape past Aberdeen in the previous round. I’ll back Basaksehir Draw No Bet at [2.54].
The market doesn’t expect many goals, with Under 2.5 Goals trading at [1.53]. That said, you can make a case for backing Over 2.5 Goals at [2.62]. Four of Burnley’s last six home games have featured at least three goals, while four of Basaksehir’s last five Europa League away games have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet pay out.
Source: Betfair Europa League
