France v Argentina: Heavyweight rivals cannot be separated

“France have greater depth of quality across their starting line-up, but if they perform as they did in the group stages, there’s no reason to suspect they’ll clearly outplay Argentina on the day.”

France v Argentina
Saturday, 15:00
Live on BBC

France are [2.52] favourites to beat Argentina in the first Last-16 clash on Saturday lunchtime. Didier Deschamps’ players were not especially impressive during the knockout phase but qualified with seven points from three matches and conceded just one goal.

Their problems were at the other end: despite a glittering array of attacking talent France managed to score just once. Admittedly that was partly because they went through the motions in their final group game vs Denmark, an encounter that ended in a 0-0 draw that suited both teams – but it’s not as though les Bleus were much more impressive in their first two matches, either.

Antoine Griezmann has been the side’s biggest disappointment so far. The Atletico Madrid striker has looked a shadow of the player that inspired France to the Euro 2016 final, finishing as the tournament’s top scorer and best player. His poor form is the reason France cannot be backed with any real confidence to win.

Argentina squeezed through thanks to Marcus Rojo‘s late right-footed winner against Nigeria. The Manchester United defender’s goal prompted scenes of jubilation on the pitch, in the stands and back home in South America.

Yet the late strike should not mask Argentina’s obvious flaws. For much of the second-half they ran out of ideas and were unable to unpick the Super Eagles’ defence. In truth, Jorge Sampaoli’s side have produced just 45 minutes of good football at the tournament, the first-half against Nigeria. And they have problems all over the pitch.

Argentina’s passing out from the back has been poor. They’re lucky that France do not press particularly aggressively in advanced areas, but it’s still a problem. Their distribution from midfield – Ever Banega excepted – has not been good enough, either, so there are few reasons to strongly favour the Albiceleste at odds of [3.55] despite the lurking genius of Lionel Messi.

The Draw by default therefore becomes the prize selection. France have greater depth of quality across their starting line-up, but if they perform as they did in the group stages, there’s no reason to suspect they’ll clearly outplay Argentina on the day.

Given the attacking problems that both teams have had so far and the fact that a cautious veil is often draped over the second round, Under 2.5 Goals would normally appeal. Yet the market has responded well, with odds of [1.56] already in place. These look suitably short so this market is best left alone.

For those looking for a second bet on the game, consider backing Argentina in a Corners Match Bet. Argentina earned 20 corners across their first three matches, whereas France won only 12, and never more than five in a single game.

Much of this is down to the fact that Deschamps has plumped for the more conservative full-backs Benjamin Pavard and Lucas Hernandez as opposed to the more attack-minded Djibril Sidibe and Benjamin Mendy (both of whom went into the tournament with injury concerns).

If Pavard – who rarely beats his opponent in one-on-one situations – and Hernandez are on the teamsheet on Saturday, backing Argentina to win more corners in the game will be a sound investment at a decent price.